This is the first blog post related to week 2 class readings which include scenario planning by Ed Cornish, personal scenario planning by Wired and also Martin Ree's essay: Cosmological Challanges: Are we alone and where? Our team will discuss these readings through this blog and provide comments.
We'll kick things off with Scenario planning. Edward Cornish provides some good tips on using Scenario planning like "backcasting" meaning to think back to the goal and determine what needs to be done to achieve it. I like the backcasting example he used of putting a man on the moon by President Kennedy which forced NASA to determine what needed to be done to achieve that goal. Do you think that goal would have been achieved with out truly thinking through all the future factors that would impact it? Using the same example, we could assume that NASA also thought about different scenario outcomes of the Apollo mission such as surprise free, optimistic, pessimistic, disaster, and transformational which was mentioned in the reading. In this instance, I believe putting a man on the moon qualifies for "transformational" because the thought of putting a man on the moon in a short time span in the 60's was something nobody could see happening. I wonder when we're going to Mars or Venus?
Wired magazine does a nice job providing a template for users to do personal scenario planning.
This might not be a bad exercise to do this for your careers since graduation is less than 1.5 months away. Yikes! Hopefully your chosen career paths will be thriving into the future :)
Moving on...let's discuss Martin Ree's essay "Are we along and where?" The thought that humans are the only living creatures in this vast planet seems absurd, right? There has to be living beings elsewhere other than earth? Well, if that were true wouldn't we have seen or discovered them by now? Sorry for being a skeptic, but I think we are alone. Sure you might find a green plant or two on Mars, but it's just a plant, not intelligent life form. I don't think in the next 50 years we'll encounter other intelligent lifeforms because after thousands of years we still haven't seen solid proof despite all of these advancements in technology.
What do you think?
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I like the concept of 'backcasting' as well. I think it will be a very useful concept to apply even while determining short term goals for an organization.
ReplyDeleteI feel that to think of a radical change and then 'backcast' (like the moon landing) one will not only have to be very innovative, but also in a powerful position to take necessary steps in order to achieve the goal.
Coincidentally I am reading a book "Radical Evolution' for another class. The book discusses scenarios as well. One interesting scenario it talks about is the 'Singularity Scenario' which is an exponential technological change which creates greater than human intelligence. I found it pretty scary.
As far as the discussion "Are we alone?" - I don't believe that we are. I feel that technology has not advanced enough to find the other living beings in this universe. Who knows- maybe if the Singularity Scenario proves to be a reality; one day we will find the others!
Nice analysis to you both. I found the scenarios readings to be a bit dry, and I view them as simply a tool that we must master in order to understand the process and advantages of futuring. Backcasting is an interesting concept, but it is far from original. After all, don't most people set goals all the time? First, I have a goal to get my MBA... then I figure out the process to make that happen, (take the GMAT, collect references, apply to school, take the required courses...).
ReplyDeleteWhat I found more interesting was the article on the universe (or sub-universe,as it maybe). I am not sold either way as to whether or not there is life out there beyond us. Actually, I don't really care if there is or not. The pursuit of answers is where I find value. Thoughts of other life forms on other planets not only drives science and technology, but also brings to question thoughts on philosophy, religion, faith, and peace.
What implications does this question, "are we alone?" have on our values? How does our background and culture effect our evaluation of this question? In short, wondering about extraterrestrial life forces us to question our own... a process that usually leads to better understanding of life in general and a greater sense of compassion for one another.
For example, the idea that other intelligent life forms exsit brings into question our notion of "God" and in turn, or purpose for living.
Is there such thing as a "God" who created us? If so, did that same "God" create other forms of life, and will we ever be able to communicate with one another? What if there are other forms of "intelligent**" life out there, does that imply that there is no god and that we are all just products of circumstance? And if that is the case, what is our purpose in life? Intellects have pondered these basic questions since the rise of civilization, and I am certain we will never know the answers... much like I am pretty certain we will never know for sure if we are alone.
Interestingly to note, when reading this essay, I realized how cyclical the futuring process can be. We consider the future in order to best prepare for it. However, no matter how much we prepare, it remains a mystery. Likewise, we consider the past, (how humans began, where the dinosaurs went, how the pyramids were built); yet through all this pondering, we will never be able to answer these questions with certainty. So the farther we go into the past, the more it starts seeming like the future- a great unknown that urges us toward self evaluation.
** Intelligence is hard to define even in the scope of our own existence. The idea that we should evaluate the intelligence of extraterrestrials using out human definition is pretty narrow minded. If we are NOT alone, and other lifeforms exist, we may not be able to relate to them at all, and therefore our definition of intelligence would be ill suited to evaluate them. But that doesn't mean that they are not highly advanced organisms.
Carissa - I totally agree with your comments about backcasting. It's certainly a useful concept but I don't know how unique it really is. Maybe it's just putting a title on the planning process?
ReplyDeleteThe "are we alone" article was really interesting and also somewhat scary. I really liked the analogy of the earth as a seed in the universe and life could be all throughout space.
I mean we already know we can't see all of space - we don't have the technology yet. Think about when people really thought the earth was flat - that could be where we are now. At some point we'll discover more about space.
I mean lets just really think about it... there could be another planet out there that has life. The 'beings' probably won't look like us since natural selection will impact the development. The climate, landscape, etc will all impact the way these beings look. Which weirdly enough makes me think that the depictions of aliens today might not be so far out. Don't get me wrong, because this stuff freaks me out, but I really believe there is other life out in space...it's just a matter of time until we make contact.
When the article talked about the sun burning out, I started to think about how we could preserve our existence. By the time the sun dies will we have created a way to live in space? Can we put things up in space to be discovered by those that will live after us?
Soooo many things to think about!
To be honest, I do not find any theory new to me. Take the "backcasting" that everyone mentioned for example, like Carissa said, it should be very common for everyone who plans to achieve a goal. Like a project you are working on, usually you will be noticed when the due date is and you set up a timeline to get things done before the deadline.
ReplyDeleteThe article most of the time tells us "what" or concepts to become a futurists or be capable of making scenarios. However, I would be more interested in understanding the "how"! How do they come up with those scenarios? What do they read or watch or expose to? How do they know which scenario is relevant or meaningful?
Just as the Professor Carmel quoted what Peter Drucker, a management guru, said, "I look out the window and identify what’s visible but not yet seen." My next question will be: We all know about the concept but "how" does he know what is visible but not yet seen?
As far as the article "Are we alone, and Where?" I couldn't help but wondering from a more sociology perspective that why it matters to figure out if there is intelligence on the other universe or plants?
So if there is another intelligence living out there, are we going to send people there? If yes, why are we sending people there? Are we going to take over the place they live? Do we want to do any experiments on them? But, why?
On the other hand, from the scientific perspective, it would be a great advance to explore the universe and take our understanding of this Galaxy to an more sophisticated level.
I personally do not believe that we are alone in this Galaxy. However, I think human beings should be more humble and respectful to no matter what intelligence exits. We have been punished with World War I and World War II, and we should know that being greedy and arrogant would ultimately lead to a disaster.