The essay 'Tapping into the Beam', discusses how in the next 50 years, information will take the form of a 'information beam'. This beam will be the new structure of the cyberworld and will have a big influence on the overall culture in society.
The Internet will be replaced by the Cybersphere. The Cybersphere will be full of information beams. These beams will carry all types of information from documents, pictures, audio recordings to even videos. Your entire life history will be able to be recorded and accessed through this beam.
While explaining how this change will occur, Brockman puts forth some interesting laws. He discusses how a rapid development in software is necessary. It is more important than advancements in hardware. Software is what is going to revolutionize technology in the future.
The law of replacement states that society replaces something when it finds something better- not newer! Many futurists believe that E-books will replace paper books in the next 50 years. E- books have a lot of practical advantages (they are portable, save paper etc.). The question remains whether society will find them better.
Finally he discusses how technology is a means, but not an end. Technology may be a part of each and every field in the future. It will be more powerful than what it is today- but we will not be wrapped up into it as we are today.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Week 4
In Brockman's What is to come and How to predict it, he mentioned that although we still have only the most sketchy ideas for providing computers with capabilities for invention, reasoning by analogy and common sense and etc., advanced technology will ultimately make a big leap. It is shocking enough that there will be artificial immune systems that can counter both living viruses. It scared me when I read that eventually there will be "conscious" robots.
This reminds me the movie AI that the little boy was designed as a sweet and thoughtful boy robot being adopted by a family. However, he acted too emotional and being so jealous when his "mom" got pregnant(a real human being). This making his mom decided to dump him. This is sad that human beings create certain robots based on their needs but they are not aware of the consequence.
The Merger of Flash and Machines continues to talk about how technology can help people who suffered from the loss of hearing or got spine injuries. So over the next ten to twenty years, there will be a cultural shift that we will adopt robotic technology or steel into our bodies to improve what we can do and understand in the world.
As for the article Futuring Methods mentioned a lot of ways to predict future that we have talked in classes before. Such as scanning, scenarios, modeling, and visioning.
This reminds me the movie AI that the little boy was designed as a sweet and thoughtful boy robot being adopted by a family. However, he acted too emotional and being so jealous when his "mom" got pregnant(a real human being). This making his mom decided to dump him. This is sad that human beings create certain robots based on their needs but they are not aware of the consequence.
The Merger of Flash and Machines continues to talk about how technology can help people who suffered from the loss of hearing or got spine injuries. So over the next ten to twenty years, there will be a cultural shift that we will adopt robotic technology or steel into our bodies to improve what we can do and understand in the world.
As for the article Futuring Methods mentioned a lot of ways to predict future that we have talked in classes before. Such as scanning, scenarios, modeling, and visioning.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Week 3
First I'll talk about the reading from Cornish. Wild cards are significant surprises/events that occur and have important consequences. These wild cards can dramatically impact the events that will follow as well as individuals feelings on the future. Wild cards can be positive or negative and can be personal or something that impacts the world. Examples would be loosing a job vs. inheriting money as well as Hurricane Katrina vs. a world peace agreement.
We all have expectations for the future and wild cards will certainly impact our expectations. For the most part, people think about the future in a personal manner - EX: when I graduated high school I already planned to finish college and go right into grad school (assuming I was admitted). But in this class we are learning to think about the future in general. Even when we talk in a larger scope we can still see how an invention or some future event could impact our lives.
Cornish mentions in the reading that wild cards can also be important for companies to look at. I think that wild cards are certainly something to consider but shouldn't drive the strategy and plans for your company since wild cards are exactly what they sound like - something with a low probability of happening or something that is unpredictable. It makes more sense to look at scenario/quadrant analysis in conjunction with wild cards.
The reading goes on to discuss major events such as the cold war, September 11th, and Pearl Harbor among others. Further, there is a discussion on future catastrophes as well as future benestrophes (positive things that would happen - like a happiness pill). The interesting thing is that there is more controversy on benestrophes than on catastrophes because not everyone agrees on what is a "good" thing - aka some people don't think that a happiness pill is a positive thing.
In the first reading from Brockman, Richard Dawkins is pondering if Moore's Law or something like it can be applied to DNA information technology. He decides to use money (taking into account inflation) as a benchmark for measuring growth. He has determined that the doubling time is 27 months (while Moore's law is 18 months). He dubs his discovery as "Son of Moore's Law" since Moore's law had a large influence on his discovery of this.
In the second reading from Brockman, Nancy Etcoff discusses mental health. She starts with the possibility that world nutrition has had an impact in the rise in cases (less Omega 3 fatty acids). There is also a growing concern that "psychiatric disorders will increase substantially across the globe". Psychiatric disorders are not caused by one thing, it is a combination of the environment and your genes. So this makes me think that if we can control our environments we might be able to reduce the likelihood of people developing psychiatric disorders - but then this gets into big brother stuff. We could control the plants we have in the area, the food that is offered, etc. But we can't control what happens at home and in each individuals personal life - its just taking it too far. Later the reading dives deeper into brain science and its impact on psychiatric disorders. Further she discusses Freudian theory vs. Darwinian medicine, the future of talk therapy, NASA wearables that signal different emotions, computers that can identify our feelings/emotions, and ultimately - will psychiatrists be needed if our clothing/computers can identify the exact medicine we need?
We all have expectations for the future and wild cards will certainly impact our expectations. For the most part, people think about the future in a personal manner - EX: when I graduated high school I already planned to finish college and go right into grad school (assuming I was admitted). But in this class we are learning to think about the future in general. Even when we talk in a larger scope we can still see how an invention or some future event could impact our lives.
Cornish mentions in the reading that wild cards can also be important for companies to look at. I think that wild cards are certainly something to consider but shouldn't drive the strategy and plans for your company since wild cards are exactly what they sound like - something with a low probability of happening or something that is unpredictable. It makes more sense to look at scenario/quadrant analysis in conjunction with wild cards.
The reading goes on to discuss major events such as the cold war, September 11th, and Pearl Harbor among others. Further, there is a discussion on future catastrophes as well as future benestrophes (positive things that would happen - like a happiness pill). The interesting thing is that there is more controversy on benestrophes than on catastrophes because not everyone agrees on what is a "good" thing - aka some people don't think that a happiness pill is a positive thing.
In the first reading from Brockman, Richard Dawkins is pondering if Moore's Law or something like it can be applied to DNA information technology. He decides to use money (taking into account inflation) as a benchmark for measuring growth. He has determined that the doubling time is 27 months (while Moore's law is 18 months). He dubs his discovery as "Son of Moore's Law" since Moore's law had a large influence on his discovery of this.
In the second reading from Brockman, Nancy Etcoff discusses mental health. She starts with the possibility that world nutrition has had an impact in the rise in cases (less Omega 3 fatty acids). There is also a growing concern that "psychiatric disorders will increase substantially across the globe". Psychiatric disorders are not caused by one thing, it is a combination of the environment and your genes. So this makes me think that if we can control our environments we might be able to reduce the likelihood of people developing psychiatric disorders - but then this gets into big brother stuff. We could control the plants we have in the area, the food that is offered, etc. But we can't control what happens at home and in each individuals personal life - its just taking it too far. Later the reading dives deeper into brain science and its impact on psychiatric disorders. Further she discusses Freudian theory vs. Darwinian medicine, the future of talk therapy, NASA wearables that signal different emotions, computers that can identify our feelings/emotions, and ultimately - will psychiatrists be needed if our clothing/computers can identify the exact medicine we need?
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